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ClimateSeverity: High

Glacier change and outburst floods in Gilgit-Baltistan

Warming is changing high-mountain glaciers and increasing the hazard from glacial lake outburst floods.

Northern Pakistan / Gilgit-Baltistan · Pakistan

01 · The problem

What is happening

Gilgit-Baltistan holds thousands of glaciers that supply meltwater to the Indus river system. Across the wider Hindu Kush Himalaya, scientific assessments document widespread glacier mass loss as temperatures rise, although parts of the Karakoram have shown comparatively stable or anomalous glacier behaviour. As glaciers retreat, meltwater can pool behind unstable moraine or ice dams. A sudden failure — a glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) — can send a destructive surge down narrow valleys where villages, roads, bridges and farmland are concentrated. Landslides and surging glaciers add further hazards, as the 2010 Attabad landslide, which dammed the Hunza River and created a lake, demonstrated.

High severity. Serious, widespread effects requiring sustained action. Severity is descriptive editorial metadata summarising documented effects. It is not a measured index or a score.

02 · Causes

Why it is happening

  1. 01

    Rising temperatures in high mountains

    Assessments by ICIMOD and the IPCC indicate that high-mountain regions are warming, accelerating ice loss in many basins.

  2. 02

    Formation and growth of glacial lakes

    Retreating ice leaves depressions and moraine-dammed lakes that can grow and become unstable.

  3. 03

    Heatwaves and intense rainfall

    Spring and summer heat spikes accelerate melt, while intense rain can trigger debris flows and lake overtopping.

  4. 04

    Settlement in exposed valley floors

    Limited flat land concentrates homes, roads and fields along rivers in the flood path.

03 · Impacts

Who and what it affects

  1. 01

    Loss of homes, bridges and roads

    Outburst floods and debris flows can cut off remote communities, including sections of the Karakoram Highway.

  2. 02

    Threats to lives and livelihoods

    Farmland, orchards, irrigation channels and livestock in valley floors are vulnerable to sudden floods.

  3. 03

    Long-term water security for the Indus basin

    Changes in glacier melt affect the timing and reliability of flows that downstream agriculture and hydropower depend on.

  4. 04

    Displacement

    Communities may be temporarily or permanently displaced after major hazard events.

04 · Solutions

Documented approaches

  1. Community-based early warning systems

    Monitoring stations, sirens and trained local volunteers give downstream villages time to evacuate, as supported by the UNDP-backed GLOF projects in Pakistan.

    Expected effectReduces loss of life when a flood occurs; does not reduce the hazard itself.

  2. Glacial lake monitoring

    Satellite and field monitoring identifies growing or potentially dangerous lakes for closer attention.

    Expected effectImproves anticipation and prioritisation of risk-reduction work.

  3. Protective infrastructure and safer siting

    Gabion walls, check dams, spillways and hazard mapping for new construction.

    Expected effectLowers damage in exposed locations and steers development away from the highest-risk ground.

  4. Regional data sharing

    Cooperation across the Hindu Kush Himalaya on glacier and hydrological data.

    Expected effectSupports better long-term water planning for downstream populations.

Explore an illustrative What-If

05 · Key indicators

What can be measured

Hazard type
Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs)

Qualitative indicator: sudden releases of water from glacial lakes are a recognised and monitored hazard in the region.

Notable event
Attabad landslide and lake2010

A landslide dammed the Hunza River, forming a lake that submerged villages and a stretch of the Karakoram Highway.

06 · Sources

Where this comes from

  1. [1]The Hindu Kush Himalaya Assessment and cryosphere researchInternational Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD)icimod.org(opens in a new tab)
  2. [2]Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing ClimateIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change · Sept 2019ipcc.ch(opens in a new tab)
  3. [3]UNDP in Pakistan (GLOF risk reduction projects)United Nations Development Programmeundp.org(opens in a new tab)
  4. [4]Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental CoordinationGovernment of Pakistanmocc.gov.pk(opens in a new tab)

Links open the publishing organisation's site. Some point to the publisher's main page, where the named report or dataset can be found.

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