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What-If

Explore what could change.

Choose a place, a documented issue and one of its documented interventions, then set how far it goes.

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

3 · Intervention
PilotScaledTransformative

Adopted across much of the area, with dedicated budgets and enforcement.

Illustrative scenario

What if Sydney took a scaled approach to “Air quality alerts”?

Starting point · documented

ClimateSeverity: High
Bushfire smoke and heat in Sydney

The 2019–20 Black Summer fires blanketed Sydney in smoke, and Western Sydney faces much hotter conditions than the coast.

The intervention · documented

Air quality alerts

NSW air quality forecasting and health advice.

Helps people reduce smoke exposure.

Schematic direction of change

Adaptation reduces exposure and harm, but the underlying hazard continues to be shaped by global greenhouse gas emissions.

Schematic, unitless illustration: relative pressure over time without the intervention compared with the intervention in place. Not based on measured data.NowLonger term →Relative pressure (unitless)
Without the intervention With the interventionSchematic shape only — no data, units or dates.

Causes this could address

This intervention works indirectly — it does not map onto a single documented cause, but supports the wider response to the issue.

Impacts that could ease

  • Smoke-related health effectsHospital visits and deaths associated with bushfire smoke.
  • Heat-related illnessOlder people, outdoor workers and those without cooling are at risk.

Wider reach at higher intensity is an assumption of this illustration.

How change might unfold

  1. Near term

    Early warning and preparedness measures can reduce harm quickly.

  2. Medium term

    Infrastructure and urban design changes reduce exposure as they are built out.

  3. Long term

    Protection must keep pace with a hazard that continues to intensify unless global emissions fall.

Faded stages are less likely to be reached at scaled intensity.

What this would not change

Local action cannot stop global warming; without global emission cuts the baseline pressure keeps rising.

What it depends on

  • Sustained funding and institutional capacity
  • Consistent enforcement and monitoring
  • Local stakeholder support
  • Participation of affected communities

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

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