Illustrative scenario
What if Coastal Bangladesh / Khulna took a scaled approach to “Cyclone Preparedness Programme”?
Starting point · documented
The southwest coast faces repeated cyclones and creeping salinity that affect farming, drinking water and health.
The intervention · documented
Cyclone Preparedness Programme
Volunteer-led early warnings and a network of cyclone shelters.
Has contributed to large reductions in cyclone mortality compared with past decades.
Schematic direction of change
Adaptation reduces exposure and harm, but the underlying hazard continues to be shaped by global greenhouse gas emissions.
Causes this could address
This intervention works indirectly — it does not map onto a single documented cause, but supports the wider response to the issue.
Impacts that could ease
- Loss of crops and livelihoodsSaline soils reduce rice yields and limit the crops that can be grown.
- Drinking water scarcitySaline groundwater and ponds leave many households dependent on rainwater, filtration or distant sources.
Wider reach at higher intensity is an assumption of this illustration.
How change might unfold
Near term
Early warning and preparedness measures can reduce harm quickly.
Medium term
Infrastructure and urban design changes reduce exposure as they are built out.
Long term
Protection must keep pace with a hazard that continues to intensify unless global emissions fall.
Faded stages are less likely to be reached at scaled intensity.
What this would not change
Local action cannot stop global warming; without global emission cuts the baseline pressure keeps rising.
What it depends on
- Sustained funding and institutional capacity
- Consistent enforcement and monitoring
- Local stakeholder support
- Participation of affected communities
ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.