Illustrative scenario
What if Berlin took a scaled approach to “Coal exit for district heating”?
Starting point · documented
Heating buildings is a large share of Berlin's emissions, and the city is shifting district heating away from coal.
The intervention · documented
Coal exit for district heating
Replacing coal plants with lower-carbon heat sources.
Substantially reduces heat-related emissions.
Schematic direction of change
Energy systems change with infrastructure turnover, which typically takes years to decades.
Causes this could address
- Fossil-fuelled heatingGas, oil and coal supply most building heat.
Impacts that could ease
- Greenhouse gas emissionsHeating is a major source of city emissions.
- Energy cost exposureHouseholds are exposed to fossil fuel price shocks.
Wider reach at higher intensity is an assumption of this illustration.
How change might unfold
Near term
Efficiency measures and early projects begin to cut demand and emissions.
Medium term
New low-carbon capacity and retrofits displace a growing share of fossil energy.
Long term
Deep change requires replacing long-lived infrastructure and hard-to-abate processes.
Faded stages are less likely to be reached at scaled intensity.
What this would not change
Grid constraints, costs and long asset lifetimes set the pace; global fuel markets also matter.
What it depends on
- Sustained funding and institutional capacity
- Consistent enforcement and monitoring
- Local stakeholder support
- Participation of affected communities
ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.