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What-If

Explore what could change.

Choose a place, a documented issue and one of its documented interventions, then set how far it goes.

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

3 · Intervention
PilotScaledTransformative

Adopted across much of the area, with dedicated budgets and enforcement.

Illustrative scenario

What if Phoenix took a scaled approach to “Office of Heat Response and Mitigation”?

Starting point · documented

ClimateSeverity: Critical
Extreme heat in Phoenix

Phoenix experiences some of the most dangerous heat of any large US city, with heat-related deaths tracked closely by the county.

The intervention · documented

Office of Heat Response and Mitigation

A dedicated city office coordinating heat response.

Improves planning, cooling centres and outreach.

Schematic direction of change

Adaptation reduces exposure and harm, but the underlying hazard continues to be shaped by global greenhouse gas emissions.

Schematic, unitless illustration: relative pressure over time without the intervention compared with the intervention in place. Not based on measured data.NowLonger term →Relative pressure (unitless)
Without the intervention With the interventionSchematic shape only — no data, units or dates.

Causes this could address

  • Urban heat islandAsphalt and buildings retain heat, keeping nights hot.
  • Rapid growthExpanding development increases heat-absorbing surfaces.

Impacts that could ease

  • Heat-related deathsHeat is a leading weather-related cause of death in the county.
  • Risk to unsheltered peoplePeople experiencing homelessness face the highest exposure.

Wider reach at higher intensity is an assumption of this illustration.

How change might unfold

  1. Near term

    Early warning and preparedness measures can reduce harm quickly.

  2. Medium term

    Infrastructure and urban design changes reduce exposure as they are built out.

  3. Long term

    Protection must keep pace with a hazard that continues to intensify unless global emissions fall.

Faded stages are less likely to be reached at scaled intensity.

What this would not change

Local action cannot stop global warming; without global emission cuts the baseline pressure keeps rising.

What it depends on

  • Sustained funding and institutional capacity
  • Consistent enforcement and monitoring
  • Local stakeholder support
  • Participation of affected communities

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

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