Illustrative scenario
What if Niger Delta took a scaled approach to “Flare gas commercialisation”?
Starting point · documented
Associated gas burned off at oil facilities wastes energy and releases pollutants and greenhouse gases.
The intervention · documented
Flare gas commercialisation
Auctioning flare sites to investors who capture and use the gas.
Converts waste into a resource while reducing emissions.
Schematic direction of change
Energy systems change with infrastructure turnover, which typically takes years to decades.
Causes this could address
- Lack of gas capture infrastructureWithout pipelines or processing, associated gas is flared.
- Economics of gas utilisationLow prices and high costs discourage investment in capture.
Impacts that could ease
- Greenhouse gas and black carbon emissionsFlaring contributes to climate change.
- Local air pollutionPollutants affect nearby communities.
Wider reach at higher intensity is an assumption of this illustration.
How change might unfold
Near term
Efficiency measures and early projects begin to cut demand and emissions.
Medium term
New low-carbon capacity and retrofits displace a growing share of fossil energy.
Long term
Deep change requires replacing long-lived infrastructure and hard-to-abate processes.
Faded stages are less likely to be reached at scaled intensity.
What this would not change
Grid constraints, costs and long asset lifetimes set the pace; global fuel markets also matter.
What it depends on
- Sustained funding and institutional capacity
- Consistent enforcement and monitoring
- Local stakeholder support
- Participation of affected communities
ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.