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What-If

Explore what could change.

Choose a place, a documented issue and one of its documented interventions, then set how far it goes.

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

3 · Intervention
PilotScaledTransformative

Adopted across much of the area, with dedicated budgets and enforcement.

Illustrative scenario

What if Northern Kenya took a scaled approach to “Transboundary water cooperation”?

Starting point · documented

NatureSeverity: High
Lake Turkana under pressure

The world's largest desert lake depends on inflow from Ethiopia's Omo River, which has been altered by dams and irrigation.

The intervention · documented

Transboundary water cooperation

Joint monitoring and agreements between Kenya and Ethiopia.

Could help maintain environmental flows to the lake.

Schematic direction of change

Halting loss can happen faster than restoring what has been lost; ecosystems recover over years to decades.

Schematic, unitless illustration: relative pressure over time without the intervention compared with the intervention in place. Not based on measured data.NowLonger term →Relative pressure (unitless)
Without the intervention With the interventionSchematic shape only — no data, units or dates.

Causes this could address

  • Irrigation abstractionLarge-scale plantations in the lower Omo valley withdraw water.

Impacts that could ease

  • Fisheries livelihoods at riskChanges in flow and salinity can affect fish breeding and catches.
  • Pressure on World Heritage valuesHabitat for crocodiles, hippos and birds may be affected.

Wider reach at higher intensity is an assumption of this illustration.

How change might unfold

  1. Near term

    Rates of clearing or degradation can slow where protection is enforced.

  2. Medium term

    Restored areas begin to function, supporting some species and services.

  3. Long term

    Mature habitat and biodiversity return slowly, and some losses are irreversible.

Faded stages are less likely to be reached at scaled intensity.

What this would not change

Extinctions cannot be reversed, and market, governance and climate pressures continue outside protected areas.

What it depends on

  • Sustained funding and institutional capacity
  • Consistent enforcement and monitoring
  • Local stakeholder support
  • Participation of affected communities

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

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