Illustrative scenario
What if Rotterdam took a scaled approach to “Carbon capture and storage”?
Starting point · documented
Europe's largest seaport is also a major industrial emissions cluster undergoing transition.
The intervention · documented
Carbon capture and storage
The Porthos project transports captured industrial carbon dioxide to depleted offshore gas fields for permanent storage.
Addresses emissions from processes that are hard to electrify in the near term.
Schematic direction of change
Energy systems change with infrastructure turnover, which typically takes years to decades.
Causes this could address
- Long asset lifetimesIndustrial plant is capital intensive and replaced over decades, slowing the pace of change.
Impacts that could ease
- Concentrated industrial emissionsA large share of national industrial carbon emissions originates in the port area.
- Local air quality and nitrogen depositionIndustry and shipping affect local air quality and contribute to nitrogen deposition on nearby nature areas.
Wider reach at higher intensity is an assumption of this illustration.
How change might unfold
Near term
Efficiency measures and early projects begin to cut demand and emissions.
Medium term
New low-carbon capacity and retrofits displace a growing share of fossil energy.
Long term
Deep change requires replacing long-lived infrastructure and hard-to-abate processes.
Faded stages are less likely to be reached at scaled intensity.
What this would not change
Grid constraints, costs and long asset lifetimes set the pace; global fuel markets also matter.
What it depends on
- Sustained funding and institutional capacity
- Consistent enforcement and monitoring
- Local stakeholder support
- Participation of affected communities
ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.