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What-If

Explore what could change.

Choose a place, a documented issue and one of its documented interventions, then set how far it goes.

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

3 · Intervention
PilotScaledTransformative

Adopted across much of the area, with dedicated budgets and enforcement.

Illustrative scenario

What if Lagos took a scaled approach to “Formalised collection”?

Starting point · documented

WasteSeverity: High
Solid waste in Lagos

Waste volumes in one of Africa's largest cities strain collection systems and dumpsites.

The intervention · documented

Formalised collection

Private sector participation in collection with service standards.

Increases collection coverage.

Schematic direction of change

Collection, segregation and policy changes can act within a few years; legacy pollution persists much longer.

Schematic, unitless illustration: relative pressure over time without the intervention compared with the intervention in place. Not based on measured data.NowLonger term →Relative pressure (unitless)
Without the intervention With the interventionSchematic shape only — no data, units or dates.

Causes this could address

  • Collection gapsIrregular collection in many neighbourhoods leads to dumping and burning.

Impacts that could ease

  • Dumpsite fires and air pollutionBurning waste releases smoke and toxic substances.
  • FloodingWaste blocks drainage channels.

Wider reach at higher intensity is an assumption of this illustration.

How change might unfold

  1. Near term

    Better collection and enforcement reduce visible leakage in served areas.

  2. Medium term

    Recycling and producer responsibility change material flows as systems mature.

  3. Long term

    Legacy dumpsites and pollution in rivers and seas take long to clean up.

Faded stages are less likely to be reached at scaled intensity.

What this would not change

Rising consumption and hard-to-recycle materials can offset gains without upstream change.

What it depends on

  • Sustained funding and institutional capacity
  • Consistent enforcement and monitoring
  • Local stakeholder support
  • Participation of affected communities

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

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