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What-If

Explore what could change.

Choose a place, a documented issue and one of its documented interventions, then set how far it goes.

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

3 · Intervention
PilotScaledTransformative

Adopted across much of the area, with dedicated budgets and enforcement.

Illustrative scenario

What if Nairobi took a scaled approach to “Plastic carrier bag ban”?

Starting point · documented

WasteSeverity: High
Waste management and the Dandora dumpsite in Nairobi

Much of Nairobi's waste ends up at a large, long-overfilled open dumpsite in the east of the city.

The intervention · documented

Plastic carrier bag ban

A 2017 ban on the manufacture, sale and use of plastic carrier bags.

Reduced a highly visible form of plastic litter.

Schematic direction of change

Collection, segregation and policy changes can act within a few years; legacy pollution persists much longer.

Schematic, unitless illustration: relative pressure over time without the intervention compared with the intervention in place. Not based on measured data.NowLonger term →Relative pressure (unitless)
Without the intervention With the interventionSchematic shape only — no data, units or dates.

Causes this could address

This intervention works indirectly — it does not map onto a single documented cause, but supports the wider response to the issue.

Impacts that could ease

  • Air pollution from burningFires at the dumpsite release smoke and toxic compounds.
  • Health risks to nearby residentsCommunities near the dumpsite face respiratory and other health risks.

Wider reach at higher intensity is an assumption of this illustration.

How change might unfold

  1. Near term

    Better collection and enforcement reduce visible leakage in served areas.

  2. Medium term

    Recycling and producer responsibility change material flows as systems mature.

  3. Long term

    Legacy dumpsites and pollution in rivers and seas take long to clean up.

Faded stages are less likely to be reached at scaled intensity.

What this would not change

Rising consumption and hard-to-recycle materials can offset gains without upstream change.

What it depends on

  • Sustained funding and institutional capacity
  • Consistent enforcement and monitoring
  • Local stakeholder support
  • Participation of affected communities

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

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