01 · The problem
What is happening
Northern Kenya's arid and semi-arid counties, including Turkana, Marsabit and Mandera, depend on two short rainy seasons for pasture and water. Between late 2020 and early 2023, the Horn of Africa experienced five consecutive failed rainy seasons, described by the World Meteorological Organization and humanitarian agencies as the region's worst drought in decades. Millions of livestock died and food insecurity rose sharply. Kenya's National Drought Management Authority monitors conditions and coordinates early action.
Critical severity. Severe, persistent harm to health, ecosystems or livelihoods. Severity is descriptive editorial metadata summarising documented effects. It is not a measured index or a score.
02 · Causes
Why it is happening
- 01
Rainfall variability
The region's rainfall is highly variable and influenced by ocean-atmosphere patterns such as La Niña and the Indian Ocean Dipole.
- 02
Warming temperatures
Higher temperatures increase evaporation and water stress for pasture and livestock.
- 03
Land degradation
Overgrazing and loss of vegetation reduce the land's capacity to retain water.
03 · Impacts
Who and what it affects
- 01
Livestock deaths
Loss of livestock destroys the main asset and income source of pastoralist households.
- 02
Food insecurity and malnutrition
Reduced milk and income lead to hunger, particularly for children.
- 03
Conflict over resources
Scarce water and pasture can increase tensions between communities.
- 04
School dropout and migration
Families move in search of water and pasture, disrupting education.
04 · Solutions
Documented approaches
Drought early warning and early action
Monthly drought bulletins and contingency funds that trigger support before crisis.
Expected effectReduces losses when action is taken early.
Hunger Safety Net Programme
Regular cash transfers to vulnerable households in arid counties, scalable during drought.
Expected effectProtects household consumption and assets during shocks.
Index-based livestock insurance
Insurance payouts triggered by satellite-measured pasture conditions.
Expected effectHelps pastoralists keep animals alive and recover faster.
Water harvesting and rangeland management
Water pans, boreholes and community grazing plans.
Expected effectImproves water access and pasture resilience.
05 · Key indicators
What can be measured
- Drought period
- Five consecutive failed rainy seasons2023
Late 2020 to early 2023 across the Horn of Africa.
06 · Sources
Where this comes from
- [1]National Drought Management AuthorityGovernment of Kenyandma.go.ke(opens in a new tab)
- [2]World Meteorological OrganizationWMOwmo.int(opens in a new tab)
- [3]Kenya Meteorological DepartmentGovernment of Kenyameteo.go.ke(opens in a new tab)
Links open the publishing organisation's site. Some point to the publisher's main page, where the named report or dataset can be found.