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What-If

Explore what could change.

Choose a place, a documented issue and one of its documented interventions, then set how far it goes.

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

3 · Intervention
PilotScaledTransformative

Adopted across much of the area, with dedicated budgets and enforcement.

Illustrative scenario

What if Rotterdam took a scaled approach to “Storm surge barriers and dikes”?

Starting point · documented

ClimateSeverity: Moderate
Living below sea level: Rotterdam's delta defence

Most of the city lies below sea level and depends on continuous engineered protection.

The intervention · documented

Storm surge barriers and dikes

The Maeslant barrier and the national dike system close off or hold back extreme water levels.

Provides a very high standard of protection, maintained and upgraded over time.

Schematic direction of change

Adaptation reduces exposure and harm, but the underlying hazard continues to be shaped by global greenhouse gas emissions.

Schematic, unitless illustration: relative pressure over time without the intervention compared with the intervention in place. Not based on measured data.NowLonger term →Relative pressure (unitless)
Without the intervention With the interventionSchematic shape only — no data, units or dates.

Causes this could address

  • Low-lying delta geographyMost of the city lies below sea level in the Rhine-Meuse delta.
  • Sea level riseRising mean sea level increases the load on defences and the frequency of extreme water levels.

Impacts that could ease

  • Permanent dependence on defencesSafety relies on continuously maintained dikes, barriers and pumps rather than natural elevation.
  • Rainfall flooding inside the defencesIntense downpours can flood streets and basements even when the sea and rivers are held back.

Wider reach at higher intensity is an assumption of this illustration.

How change might unfold

  1. Near term

    Early warning and preparedness measures can reduce harm quickly.

  2. Medium term

    Infrastructure and urban design changes reduce exposure as they are built out.

  3. Long term

    Protection must keep pace with a hazard that continues to intensify unless global emissions fall.

Faded stages are less likely to be reached at scaled intensity.

What this would not change

Local action cannot stop global warming; without global emission cuts the baseline pressure keeps rising.

What it depends on

  • Sustained funding and institutional capacity
  • Consistent enforcement and monitoring
  • Local stakeholder support
  • Participation of affected communities

ILLUSTRATIVE SCENARIO — NOT A SCIENTIFIC PREDICTION. Built from documented causes, impacts and solutions plus general qualitative patterns. It contains no modelled numbers.

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